When I stopped paying for spreadsheet templates, I didn't think much of it. But that small shift reveals something interesting about how tools evolve in organizations, and the same pattern is coming for software.
The Natural Evolution of Tools
Spreadsheets follow a beautifully organic pattern. They start simple. A quick list to track project tasks. A basic calculator to estimate costs. Then, as the business need becomes clearer, the spreadsheet grows. Formulas get added. Tabs multiply. Conditional formatting appears. Macros get written. That simple spreadsheet becomes an integral part of a critical business process.
Process first, technology second. The tool adapts and molds itself to the process as the process itself becomes better understood and more refined.
Traditional software has always worked backwards from this natural evolution. Companies buy software pre-built from a vendor, implement it with some customization, and then comes the backwards part: they build their business processes around what the technology can do rather than what they actually need.
This approach has persisted for decades not because it's optimal, but because it was the only economically viable option. Building custom software was simply too expensive and time-consuming for most use cases. So we accepted the compromise: buy generic software and adapt our processes to fit it.
AI-Assisted Development Changes the Math
The barrier to creating custom software has dropped considerably. With AI-assisted development tools like GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT, and Claude, someone with minimal coding experience can now describe what they need in plain English and have AI generate working code in minutes. The iteration cycle that used to take days or weeks can now happen in hours.
This changes the build-versus-buy decision. We're starting to see how software gets created and consumed within companies shift.
The Disposable Software Pattern
Just as we create spreadsheets for specific projects and then discard them when they're no longer needed, much of the internally developed software will follow the same pattern. It will be ephemeral, purpose-built, and disposable.
A tool to track a six-month project gets built, then thrown away when the project ends.
A prototype to demonstrate a concept to stakeholders gets built, then discarded after the demo.
A custom integration between two systems for a temporary initiative gets built, then deleted when the initiative completes.
This disposability is useful, not wasteful. Organizations can have exactly the tools they need for exactly as long as they need them, without the overhead of maintaining tools that no longer serve a purpose.
This mirrors how we currently use spreadsheets. We create project trackers, financial models, and one-off calculators all the time. We use them for their intended purpose, and then we move on. Nobody worries about the "technical debt" of an old spreadsheet sitting in a folder somewhere. It just becomes irrelevant and gets ignored.
What Software Will We Still Buy?
If building becomes easier and cheaper, what role will traditional software vendors play?
The software that companies will continue to buy from external vendors will have three key characteristics:
1. Generalizable Use Cases Across Many Companies
The best bought software solves problems that are similar across many organizations. Payroll processing, email systems, CRM platforms. These tools address needs that don't vary significantly from company to company, which means a single vendor can serve thousands of customers with essentially the same product.
2. Significant Depth and Complexity
Some software requires such deep domain expertise, ongoing maintenance, and continuous innovation that it makes no sense to build internally. Enterprise resource planning systems, advanced analytics platforms, and specialized compliance tools fall into this category. The depth of functionality required is simply too great for most organizations to build and maintain themselves.
3. Network Effects and Ecosystem Value
Software that becomes more valuable as more people use it will continue to have staying power. Communication platforms, marketplaces, and collaborative tools all benefit from network effects that make buying infinitely more valuable than building.
The Economics Tell a Story
The economics here get interesting. Building is now cheaper than it used to be, which means there's going to be more building happening across organizations.
But this makes buying more expensive.
Simple supply and demand. As companies build more software internally to handle their unique, specific needs, the software they're willing to pay for becomes increasingly specialized and differentiated. It has to be. Why pay for something that could easily be built internally?
This means software vendors will need to focus on creating truly differentiated products that deliver substantial value that's genuinely difficult to replicate. And products with that level of specialization and differentiation can command premium pricing.
The market is splitting: companies will buy fewer, more expensive, highly-specialized tools and build everything else themselves.
What This Means for Organizations
For business leaders, this shift has practical implications:
Rethink Build vs. Buy Frameworks: The calculus that has guided these decisions needs updating. The cost of building has dropped considerably, and that needs to be factored into every technology decision.
Invest in Internal Capability: Organizations need people who can effectively leverage AI coding tools. This doesn't mean hiring armies of software engineers. It means enabling existing teams to build tools that solve their problems.
Be Selective About Purchases: Every dollar spent on purchased software should be justified by clear differentiation. If it could be built relatively easily internally, that might be the better path.
Embrace Disposability: Not all software needs to be permanent and perfectly architected. Sometimes good enough for right now is exactly what's needed.
The Bottom Line
Software creation is becoming more fluid and natural, much like spreadsheet creation has been for decades. The tools will flow from process rather than forcing process to conform to tools.
For some, this will feel chaotic and uncontrolled. For others, it will be liberating.
Organizations that adapt to this reality will build fast, build often, and only buy what truly cannot be built. Software isn't disappearing. But how we think about creating it, using it, and discarding it is changing to match what we've already learned from spreadsheets.
Just like a spreadsheet.
